Tuesday, June 8, 2010

The Burlington

The top three year old pacers will prep for the North America Cup with the Burlington which races in three divisions for $100,000.

Based on pedigree the top horses should be

First Division

1. Malicious 2. Sportswriter 3. Dr Dreamy

Second Division

1. Rocknroll Heaven 2.Rock Me Please 3. Ideal Matters

Third Division

1 Woodstock 2 Keystone Raptor 3 Mcaracas 4 Warrawee Legend

What do you think ?

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Break The Bank K

“I watched him race last year and I was stunned by his speed,” Smedshammer said. “I said last year to a few people jokingly that if I could pick one horse out of that group [of two-year-old trotters], he would be the one I wanted to pick because of his breeding and his size and his speed. I was thrilled, absolutely thrilled, to get this horse. He’s got the potential to be the best if he minds his manners.”

That is pretty high praise for a colt by Revenue considering that the sire has been only modestly successful to date. Of his 150 foals 3 years and older he has 85 to the races and just 7 with earnings of over $100K. Despite this slow start Revenue could well be the sire of the next great American super sire if Break The Bank K lives up to Smedshammer's expectations. The colt's first start this year was a winning one in the NJSS. The winning time of 1:56.3 tells only half the tale since Break The Bank K trotted his last half in 55.1 and last quarter in 27 seconds in winning. There are not many aged trotters with that kind of speed.

A look at his pedigree explains why. The expected profile for Revenue S was for Speedster line dams or Stars Pride line dams with a second dam by Speedy Crown or a son. The actual profile after his first two crops have raced is right on the mark. (see attached) . Break The Bank K falls into the second profile category being out of an American Winner dam with a second dam by Crowning Point, a son of Speedy Crown. The dam in fact is inbred to Speedy Crown. His maternal line is inbred maternally for 11 consecutive generations.

Revenue S has a French bred sire but his dam has all American bloodlines combining Sugarcane Hanover (Florida Pro) with Lindys Pride (Stars Pride). That makes Break The Bank K an outcross on sire line and inbred maternally to both Florida Pro and Stars Pride. The match is a Scenario #3 match where we ignore the two Speedy Crown lines in the dam and match to the two other major maternal lines of the first and third dams.

What makes Break The Bank K so interesting is that he presents a perfect opportunity for virtually every broodmare in North America as a potential sire. His sire line being French automatically makes him an outcross sire. His maternal lines contain the two key individuals in North American breeding, Speedy Crown and Super Bowl. Profile of Revenue S Pedigree of Break The Bank K

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Breeding Statistics

Based on the statistics on the Standardbred Canada site there is a disturbing and growing trend in the breeding business and it is not all good.

In Canada the number of active stallions has dropped from 412 in 2006 to 259 in 2009. That is a 37% drop with most of that (25%) happening from 2008 to 2009. Based on the active stallions this year the trend has continued to accelerate especially due to the Quebec situation. In North America the overall drop has been 30% with 17% of the drop occuring from 2008 to 2009.

The number of broodmares in North America has shown a similar but not as severe a decline down from 21780 in 2006 to 17388 in 2009, a drop of 21% - 25% in Canada.

If anything the stats for 2010 will be even worse. I know when we held our mixed sale last fall you could not give a broodmare away.

I just finished adding in the yearlings, foals of 2009 to our database and they totalled just over 8500 for North America, that is a little less than 50% foaling rate based on the active broodmares for 2009. Not a very good statistic either. That is a 2000 plus drop from the yearlings in 2008 which matches the drop in broodmares from 2008 to 2009.

There will likely be just as many for sale this year as last year given the state of the economy but what does the future hold ?