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Saturday, November 4, 2017

John Fielding - Breeding Champions

John Fielding is a breeder and owner of both Standardbreds and Thoroughbreds and has had great success with both breeds. His two year old TB filly Rushing Fall just won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly one week after his co-owned two year old trotting filly Manchego won the Breeders Crown for standardbreds. While they are breeds apart their pedigrees share a common pattern, the Double/Double.
He also co-owns the TB colt Catholic Boy who was fourth in the Breeders Cup Turf and a former Hambletonian winner in Pinkman. They too have the double/double pattern that has produced so many of the best in standardbreds and now, thanks to Fielding, is coming into prominence in thoroughbred breeding too, an approach that goes against the establishment thinking in T-breds that minimizes inbreeding of any kind. The double/double is based on maternal inbreeding.

View previous blog article on the Double/Double for more information on what to look for.


Sunday, October 8, 2017

World Champion Hannelore Hanover - Another Double / Double

Hannelore Hanover became the fastest female trotter in history winning in 1.49.2 over the Red Mile at Lexington. Her success is no surprise to those who recognize the Double / Double pattern in her pedigree.

My earlier post on this pedigree pattern featured another World Champion in Always B Micki and an explanation of how the pattern can be identified.

In the case of Hannelore Hanover it is the multiple lines through Speedy Crown, combined with duplicated lines through Super Bowl and Arnie Almahurst that create the double/double return of sire lines from the dam to the sire Swan For All.

Hannelore Hanover was bred by Hanover Shoe Farms who seem to make a point of breeding at least one mare to new stallions in other jurisdictions and have several times produced what turned out to be one of the best such as Reverend Hanover by Sportswriter and now this great filly by Swan For All.

Swan For All was bred by Dr Paul Spears and Windsong Stable. Now a senior executive of Hanover Shoe Farms I'm sure he had a direct say in which mare in the Hanover band should be bred to Swan For All. He has, after all, been to Pedigree Camp several times and has an appreciation for the "Return to the Sire" breeding strategy.

The dam of Swan For All in closely linebred to Baltic Speed, sire of Valley Victory and a grandson of Speedy Crown. Typically such sires will succeed best with mares that have Speedy Crown doubled up in their own pedigree and such is the case for High Sobriety by Dream Vacation with dams by Valley Victory and Royal Prestige (Speedy Crown) maternally. That is a typical case of "Return to the sire the best blood of his dam". The double/double occurs when we look at the maternal lines of Andover Hall, sire of Swan For All and find Arnie Almahurst (Arndon) and Super Bowl lines which are the other two principal lines in High Sobriety whose sire goes to Arndon and whose second dam is by a son of Super Bowl.

Hannelore Hanover, for those of you familiar with the x-factor mare Margaret Parrish, is a multiple double to that special mare since Dream Vacation's dam is a double Margaret Parish as is the second dam of Swan For All.

It is fitting indeed that this special mare was bred by Hanover Shoe Farms, arguably the top standardbred nursery in the world, and from a maternal line that extends to Miss Bertha Dillon, the foundation mare in their broodmare band when Hanover Shoe Farms was founded in the mid 1920's. She produced Miss Bertha Hanover and several full sisters that make the maternal family of Medio one of the top maternal families worldwide.

Monday, September 25, 2017

Visit by Nikolaus Matzka of Austria

Here is an article by Nikolaus Matzka on his visit to Prince Edward island. Please forgive his English but I am sure you will get the drift of his story.



First Crop Sires - Part 2

Trixton and E L Titan

These two sons of Muscle Hill are from a full sister and a full sister in blood to Andover, Conway and Angus Hall and are by a Valley Victory line sire.  Cantab Hall is by a Valley Victory line sire and is also from a full sister in blood to the Hall boys. That makes these stallions easy to figure out since the profile for Cantab Hall is well established. There will be some differences due to the influence of the maternal lines of Muscle Hill whose dam is line bred to Stars Pride but the expected profile remains essentially the same as for Cantab Hall whose best 20 have the following characteristics.

1. Mares that are line bred or inbred to Speedy Crown, a son and/or an Arndon line. (17)
2. Mares that are line bred or inbred to Stars Pride or to Noble Victory line that also have Speedy Crown or a son or an Arndon line maternally. (2)
3. Mares with no Speedy Crown maternally (1)

15 of the top 20 by Cantab Hall have a maternal line through Stars Pride, a son or the Super Bowl line. Since Muscle Hill is linebred maternally to Stars Pride you can expect the Stars Pride influence on the success of Trixton and E L Titan to be even more pronounced with more Stars Pride line mares than is the case for Cantab Hall where the balance in the top 20 is 12 to 8 in favour of Valley Victory or Pine Chip line mares. There may even be more mares that succeed with no Speedy Crown maternally although these are understandably rare.

Based on the above there are quite a few possibilities in the Lexington, Harrisburg and Forest City sales and my top choices are as follows.

Trixton

Cheap Tricks - Harrisburg #99 - 093 - 1.51.4
Miss Trixton - Lexington  #38 - 110 - 1.51.0

E L Titan

Checkmate Titan - Harrisburg #673 - 076 - 1.52.4
Djokover - Lexington #141 - 091 - 1.50.0
Lefkada - Forest City #99 - 084 - 1.52.2

First Crop Sires

First Crop Sires in 2017

This year's yearling sales feature the first yearlings by some stellar racehorses. Captaintreacherous and Trixton are the ones most people are looking forward to buying, if they can afford them that is. In addition to Captaintreacherous the pacing yearlings will also have first offerings from other sons of Somebeachsomewhere such as Sunshine Beach, and from great performers like Sweet Lou. The trotting sires joining Trixton as first timers include other sons of Muscle Hill like E L Titan,  plus Father Patrick, Royalty For Life, and Uncle Peter.

Established sires have all shown, through their sire profiles, the type of mare with which they succeed. Even the second crop sires such as A Rocknroll Dance and Archangel have developed a pattern of success that can now be used to separate the few with a reasonable chance of success from the many that do not. But how do you know what kind of mares the first crop sires will succeed with?  The answer most likely is to be found in the profiles of similar sires, especially those with similar maternal lines.

The maternal lines of Captaintreacherous are Artsplace and Nihilator and he has a very strong maternal family that includes successful and would be sires such as Art Major, Real Artist, Perfect Art, Panspacificflight, World Of Rocknroll, Beachtrea and Wake Up Peter, in addition to several world champion performers on the track.

On the surface this appears to be a cant-miss sire but there are some question marks. In addition to World of Rocknroll, from a full sister to the dam of Captaintreacherous, there is Kenneth J who has the same maternal combination of Artsplace and Nihilator. Both have horses of racing age and neither has so far shown any great or consistent siring ability. Kenneth J's best from 247 of racing age is Murder She Wrote with $192K made and he has now left the North America stallion ranks. Even in failure, however, we can pick up some useful information. Of his 8 winners of over $100K five are from mares by sons of Abercrombie or Artsplace, and two others have Abercrombie or a son maternally. The lone exception is from a Jennas Beach Boy mare that is both line bred and inbred to the Meadow Skipper line. This inbreeding to the Meadow Skipper line occurs in all eight of Kenneth J's best and features a maternal line mare by Meadow Skipper, a son or an Albatross line as one or both of the inbred lines.

World Of Rocknroll also has eight winners of over $100K and although the Abercrombie connection is not as prominent with five such mares, the Meadow Skipper connection through mares line bred or inbred is also present in all eight.

Looking at the broader context of sires with Artsplace dams we find a strikingly similar situation especially with regard to the presence of Albatross in the dams of the best performers. There are 23 such sires with foals of racing age and the best in terms of top performers is Western Terror with a success rate of 18.2%. The overall success rate for sires with Artsplace dams, however, is just 10.2% and considerably shy of the 15% level for "just average" sires. Artsplace was a 24.4% sire and is 19.6% as a broodmare sire but those stats do not necessarily carry on to the next generation. Other current sires with Artsplace dams and several crops racing include Canyon Wind (13.4%),  Well Said (12.1%), Rock N Roll Heaven (11.3%), Metropolitan (11.7%), If I Can Dream (9.4%), Artistic Fella (9.1%), Big Bad John (5.4%), P Forty Seven (7.2%), Vintage Master (2.6%), Kenneth J (5.5%), World Of Rocknroll (6.7%).

None of these sires, however, are by the great Somebeachsomewhere and that may make a difference but then again maybe it will not. His first two sons with progeny racing are So Surreal and Net Ten Eom. So Surreal was a fast but unsound son of the great Artsplace mare Must See, dam of Well Said. He has one decent one from his first crop of 52 two year olds that has made just over $85K in Azreal As It Gets and true to form this one is from a mare linebred to Meadow Skipper. Net Ten Eom is from an equally well respected Artsplace mare in Glowing Report, but like So Surreal was unsound as a racehorse and is struggling in his first crop of 72 with the best earning just $14,560 so far. His profile also is showing a preference for mares line bred or inbred to Meadow Skipper.

There is an old theory first written about in the original Care And Training of the Trotter And Pacer published by the USTA. In the chapter on breeding the author, James C Harrison, wrote "All of the foundation sires of the breed were relatively short bred maternally in the sense that none of the female families that produced them ever established lasting maternal families of their own"  Does this mean that stallions from top quality mares such as Must See and Glowing Report, are doomed to failure?  The family of Somebeachsomewhere is nowhere to be found in the top 300 maternal families. His maternal line goes back to Rosa (1868) and it took 100 years before Lil Miss Thompson was born and subsequently produced the first $100K winner , Jambooger by Albatross, in 1974. Researching the descendents of Lil Miss Thompson shows just 38 winners of over $100K before Somebeachsomewhere came along. The best one was Giveittoemstraight ($613K) from a 3/4 sister to the second dam of Somebeachsomewhere.

If I was buying a yearling by Captaintreacherous it looks like I should focus on the mares line bred or inbred to the Meadow Skipper line that have Albatross and Abercrombie maternally through sons or daughters. That still leaves you with a lot to choose from. In Harrisburg my top pick would be Flameproof Hanover 124 - 1.48.2, and in Lexington it would be the filly Treacherous Trails 129 - 1.48.1.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

2017 Yearling Ratings

Ratings are now available for all North American yearling sales. The ratings are based on :

1. The yearling fits the established or predicted profile of the sire
2. The speed and earnings values in the pedigree are sufficient to produce at least a regional stakes winner.

The ratings are designed to eliminate wasting your time looking at and bidding on yearlings with little or no chance of success based on pedigree and the family history.

Reports for Harrisburg and Lexington are available for $800 for the full sale or $250 for any segment e.g. pacing colts, NY eligibles etc.

Reports for Ohio, New York, Canada and Indiana sales cost $250 each.

You can also order a segmented report on all NY yearlings in all sales or Ontario, NJ, or PA yearlings for $300

Conformation is an important part of yearling selection. Using an adjustment of + or - 50 points on the ratings can bring lower rated individuals into consideration and disqualify higher rated yearlings.

To order reports use the Paypal option on the pedigreematching.com website.

The top twelve two year olds in earnings this year from last year's sales were all listed in the PM ratings for 2016.

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Performance Updates

Performance updates are underway for the PM Online databases. Now is the time to update your stallion profiles, one of the most important reports you need for proper sire selection. Attached is the profile for pacing sire Rock N Roll Heaven who is back in New York standing at Winbak Farm. He has a very specific profile that involves the relatively obscure sire line of Gene Abbe. In looking over the yearlings of 2014 I found just one that fitted his profile and worthy of recommending for purchase. She is Planet Rock, and now one of the top NY 2 year olds last year and winner of $202,500. Every stallion has a profile with respect to the sire lines in the dams of his best performers and more often than not the key sire lines are the same as the ones in his own dam. This is not the case with Gene Abbe though but since it is clearly a "nick" with a high percentage it cannot be ignored even if it cant be explained, especially in pedigrees that also combine Cam Fella and Abercrombie lines.There were three yearlings in Harrisburg last year that were on profile, Chief Rockstar, Pan Am Blue Chip and Twin B Tuffenuff, and three in Lexington, Allie Cat Deo, Kasey Deo and Lets Fall In Love. If you bought a yearling by Pet Rock in Ohio you should be aware that his sire lines are identical to those of Rock N Roll Heaven and he will likely have the same profile of success. I'm looking for Velocity Mattie, Huey, Isic Rock, Jojos Pet Rock, Lima Valor, Mossies Art and Our Third Rock to continue the trend.